The main Actions of the project are:
A1 Development of a stakeholder engagement strategy
The aim of this action is to put in place a participatory modelling process, through the elicitation of knowledge and preferences from actors, thus building not only a common understanding of the problem, but also the conceptual – and later operational – framework for supporting decisions. For this to be achieved, a Stakeholder Engagement Strategy (SES) including a Communication plan was developed from the early stages of the project.
Start date: 01/10/2015, End date: 31/11/2015
Download here the Deliverable of this Action (Del. Α1.1)
C1 Knowledge capitalization in the three project areas
The aim of this action is to capitalize existing knowledge on the agricultural sectors of the regions of Crete, Sicily and Cyprus with a special focus on the six pilot areas, as well as, to examine how climate change is affecting (or is expected to affect) the agriculture of the project areas.
Start date: 01/10/2015, End date: 29/02/2016
Download here the Deliverable of this Action (Del. C1.1)
C2 Review and assessment of the national and European policy framework on agriculture and evaluation of the available adaptation options
During this Action, a review and assessment of the existing framework policy supporting the adaptation of agriculture to climate change took place, both at European and project implementation level (i.e. Crete, Cyprus and Sicily), while the developed national/regional adaptation plans for the agricultural sector were examined.
In addition, the available techniques and methods for addressing climate change impacts on agriculture were identified and evaluated. To this end, specifically designed questionnaires will be distributed to experts and stakeholders engaged in the field.
Start date: 01/02/2016, End date: 31/10/2016
Download here the Deliverable of this Action (Del. C2.1)
C3 Use of regional climate models for the projection of future climate conditions
In the framework of this Action, state-of-the-art Regional Climate Models (RCMs) developed within the framework of CORDEX initiative for examining the potential future climate changes in the islands of Crete, Cyprus and Sicily were used. The climatic data cover the period 1971-2100 while future projections were for two IPCC emission scenarios the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5. As future period, the thirty year period from 2031 to 2060 has been chosen specifically for the needs of the Regions’ as well as the assistance of project stakeholders and policy makers for their planning in the near future.
In addition, in collaboration with project partners and after consultation with project stakeholders, climate change indices relevant to agriculture were constructed. These climatic indicators are related to the different phenological stages of the plant, plant production and crop quality as well as plant’s survival. Geographical maps for the islands of interest depicting current conditions and changes in these climatic indicators have been constructed.
Moreover, thin plate spline-3D interpolation method was used to interpolate RCM data from the 12km grid into the finer one with 3km spatial resolution only for the pilot areas under study.
Responsible partner for the implementation of this Action was NOA.
Start date: : 01/10/2016, End date: 15/07/2017
Download here the Deliverable of this Action (Del. C3)
C4 Assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change
C4.1: Use of hydrological models for assessing future hydrological conditions related to agriculture
In this Activity, groundwater simulation models have been developed to estimate the impacts of future climate change on groundwater resources in selected areas (pilot) in Cyprus, Crete and Sicily. In addition, in pilot areas facing salinization and nitrate pollution problems, SEAWAT algorithm and MT3D model were also used, wherever possible, to assess climate change impacts on groundwater quality. Groundwater flow and contaminant mass transport models were developed relied on hydrological and hydro-geological characteristics of each pilot aquifer. Then, a characteristic mean hydrological year was selected at each pilot aquifer to approximate the current state of the aquifer with the respect to groundwater table and contaminant plume. Finally, a series of simulation runs were performed in all pilot aquifers in order to estimate changes in groundwater parameters under pressure for a foreseen extreme dry hydrological year obtained from the RCMs MPI-RCA4 and MOHC-RCA4 (Action C.3).
Responsible partner for the implementation of this Action was NTUA
Start date: 01/12/2015, End date: 15/07/2017
Download here the Deliverable of this Action (Del. C4.1)
C4.2: Use of crop models for assessing the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change
In this activity the crop performances of 6 crops (barley, wheat, tomato, potato, grapevine and olive tree) were simulated under different climatic scenarios, in the three islands and in the pilot areas under study. To this regard, three Crop simulation Models, CropSyst (version 3.2), OliveModel.CNR and UNIFI.GrapeML were used.
The crop simulations have been performed under three different climatic scenarios (Action C.3): the Baseline-Historical, which refer to the time slice 1971-2000; the RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, both related to the temporal period 2031-2060. For each crop, different sowing seasons or precocity levels were taken into consideration.
Specific simulations’ outcomes (about crop phenology, crop physiology and crop growth) were selected to define six performance indicators for effectively analysing the response of crops under different climatic conditions, i.e. the Flowering date, the Maturity date, the Actual Evapotranspiration (AE), the Potential Evapotranspiration (PE), the rate between the two AE/PE, and the crop yield.
To appreciate the different sensitivity (vulnerability) of the selected crops under potential changing of climatic conditions, the differences between the performance values in the scenario RCP 4.5 or RCP 8.5 and the performance values of the Baseline (Historical), were calculated for each performance indicator. All crop performance indicators were depicted as maps with different spatial resolution.
Responsible partner for the implementation of this Action was IBIMET.
Start date: 01/02/2016, End date: 30/09/2017
Download here the Deliverable of this Action (Del. C4.2)
C5 Development of the ADAPT2CLIMA tool to support adaptation planning for agriculture
During this Action, the ADAPT2CLIMA Decision Support tool for enhancing understanding of climate change impacts on agriculture and supporting stakeholders in adaptation planning for agriculture has been developed.
The tool provides information on the magnitude of climate change impacts for each crop under study (barley, wheat, grape, olive, potato and tomato) for the islands, as well as on the potential for enhancing resilience through the implementation of selected adaptation measures.
In addition, the tool includes a separate section on the background information used for the impact assessment, selected climatic, agronomic and hydrologic indicators, the available adaptation measures for addressing the impacts and other socio-economic indicators of relevance to the assessment.
Lastly, the ADAPT2CLIMA tool may be used by everyone wishing to develop a regional adaptation strategy for the agricultural sector of Italy, Greece and Cyprus. In particular, in a dedicated section the user can provide certain input data and then the tool conducts a climate change impact and adaptation assessment which is delivered geospatially. The results are presented in the form of maps which may be downloaded for further processing or for inclusion in the adaptation strategy. Based on the results of the assessment, the competent authorities may decide on the specific areas and crops where adaptation measures are needed most and should be implemented.
The ADAPT2CLIMA tool may be assessed at the following link: tool.adapt2clima.eu
Start date: 01/12/2016, End date: 31/10/2018
C6 Implementation, optimization and demonstration of the ADAPT2CLIMA tool
Activity C.6.1: Implementation, evaluation and optimization of the ADAPT2CLIMA tool
The aim of this activity was to put into practice the developed first version of the ADAPT2CLIMA tool (Action C.5) in the three project islands, in order for the project team and the Steering committees to test and evaluate it; to check whether it meets the objectives set out in the development phase and whether it is fit-for-purpose; to make the necessary modifications and finally, to optimize it. The tool was evaluated through dedicated survey questionnaires and specifically designed focus group discussions.
In addition, a demonstration and tutorial video was developed providing real-time audiovisual presentation of the different functions of the tool, as well as, step-by-step guidelines on its operation, while a user manual was also developed.
Following, a concrete replication and transfer plan was developed, with the aim to provide detailed guidance on the necessary steps, in order for other decision makers to employ the proposed methodology for assessing climate change impacts for their local, regional and national agricultural sectors and for developing adaptation plans for agriculture.
Activity C.6.2: Demonstration of the ADAPT2CLIMA tool
Ιn the framework of this activity, the ADAPT2CLIMA tool and the results from its implementation were demonstrated to agricultural cooperatives and to other stakeholders and target groups, project pilot rural areas as well as other agricultural areas of the project implementation areas (i.e. Cyprus, Greece and Italy). In addition, a series of training seminars/workshops, on the tool operation was organized in the project pilot areas.
Start date: 01/09/2018, End date: 30/11/2019
C7 Development of an adaptation strategy of agriculture to climate change impacts
In the framework of this Action, adaptation strategies for the agricultural sectors of each project area were developed. The adaptation strategies present a summary of the future climate change projections and associated impacts and, most importantly, an analysis of the proposed adaptation actions. Furthermore, recognizing the particular importance of water resources for agriculture, especially in the light of climate change, as well as the significant effect of agriculture on water resources management, a separate strategy for the efficient water use in agriculture is included as an individual chapter to each adaptation strategy.
Start date: 01/11/2017, End date: 29/02/2020